Remember the good old days of Black Friday? The thrill of waking up before dawn, clutching a warm thermos, and joining a line of fellow bargain hunters stretching around the block. The sheer chaos when the doors finally flew open, with shoppers dashing through the aisles, determined to snag that deeply discounted TV or the season’s hottest toy. For decades, Black Friday was more than just a day of sales; it was a cultural phenomenon, an unofficial American holiday dedicated to the art of the deal. It was the retail world’s Super Bowl, marked by unbelievable prices and frenzied crowds.
But lately, that signature buzz has faded. The images of stampeding shoppers have been replaced by pictures of half-empty stores and orderly lines. The doorbuster deals that once seemed like once-in-a-lifetime opportunities now feel… well, a little less special. Black Friday is still a massive day for retailers, but it’s clear the event has changed. The marathon hours, riotous crowds, and jaw-dropping discounts that defined it are slowly becoming relics of the past. Instead, we have a shopping season that starts earlier, lasts longer, and happens just as much on our phones as it does in physical stores.
So, what happened to the Black Friday we once knew? The shift has been gradual but significant. Consumers are savvier, more skeptical, and less willing to brave the cold for a deal they might be able to find online a week later. Retailers, facing new challenges from e-commerce and changing shopper habits, have stretched the event so thin that it's lost its edge.
A Tale of Two Shoppers: The Shift from In-Store to Online
The story of Black Friday's transformation is best told through the changing habits of its participants. For years, the defining image of the Thanksgiving weekend was the in-person shopper, but numbers from 2017 to 2024 reveal just how dramatic the shift to online shopping has been. According to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF):
- In 2017, about 77,400,000 of Thanksgiving weekend shoppers made in-store purchases, while 66,200,000 shopped online.
- By 2018, those numbers started to edge closer: approximately 67,400,000 in-store versus 65,200,000 online.
- In 2019, online sales eclipsed in-store purchases by 93,200,000 versus 82,400,000
- The pandemic year, 2020, saw a sharp reversal—online shopping surged to record highs, accounting for nearly twice as many Thanksgiving weekend shoppers, as health concerns and restrictions pushed consumers away from brick-and-mortar stores.
- In the years since, online shopping has maintained its lead. From 2021 through 2024, more shoppers consistently bought online rather than in-store each Thanksgiving weekend.
- In 2024, this trend remained solid: over 87 million shoppers made at least one online purchase over thanksgiving weekend, compared to just under 82 million who shopped in-store (many did both, but the majority of purchases clearly skewed online).
Total shopper participation has hovered around 180 to 190 million over the weekend in these years, with slight fluctuations but no dramatic spikes or record-breaking surges. What changed was how people shopped—by 2024, digital transactions outpaced in-person shopping for the sixth year in a row, solidifying the shift to mobile and online as the new normal for Thanksgiving weekend deals.
New data from the National Retail Federation shows that Thanksgiving weekend shoppers have peaked at close to 203 million but that number includes Cyber Monday which saw nearly 76 million online shoppers compared to Black Fridays 85.7 million online shoppers.
This evolution reflects a larger change in our relationship with shopping. We expect convenience, we comparison-shop with ease, and we are less swayed by the manufactured urgency of a single-day event. Retailers have had to adapt, turning their websites and apps into the primary battleground for holiday dollars, while physical stores play a different, more complementary role.
Let's look back at the trends for in-store versus online shoppers over the long Thanksgiving weekend, which includes Cyber Monday:
- The Rise of the Online Shopper: For the last six years, a consistent trend has emerged: more people are shopping from the comfort of their couch than by braving the mall. The convenience of clicking add to cart without changing out of your pajamas has proven to be a powerful draw.
- The Pandemic Accelerator: While online shopping was already on a steady rise, the COVID-19 pandemic threw gasoline on the fire. In 2020, health and safety concerns pushed a record number of consumers online, and many of those habits have stuck. People discovered that they could access the same deals, and sometimes even better ones, without facing crowds.
- A New Kind of Weekend: The Thanksgiving weekend is no longer just about Black Friday. It has expanded into what the retail industry calls the "Turkey 5," spanning from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. Retailers now launch deals online on Thanksgiving Day, or even earlier, pulling forward sales that once belonged exclusively to Friday morning. This has turned the entire weekend into a hybrid shopping event, where consumers might browse in-store on Friday but finalize their purchases online on Sunday night.
- The Total Shopper Count: When you look at the total number of shoppers—both online and in-person—over the Thanksgiving weekend, the numbers have fluctuated. While there was a significant post-Covid rebound in overall participation, the nature of that participation has fundamentally changed. The weekend now attracts a massive audience, but that audience is split between digital and physical storefronts in a way that was unimaginable a decade ago.
Consumers expect convenience. We comparison-shop with ease, and we are less swayed by the manufactured urgency of a single-day event. Retailers have had to adapt, turning their websites and apps into the primary battleground for holiday dollars, while physical stores play a different, more complementary role.
The Fading Foot Traffic Frenzy
One of the most telling signs of Black Friday’s changing identity is the shifting reality of foot traffic. There’s no denying that it’s still one of the busiest shopping days of the year, but the jam-packed scenes of the past have noticeably thinned. According to Placer.ai, in-store visits on Black Friday have been consistently more than 50% higher than the daily average for the full year since at least 2021. For example, if a typical Friday sees roughly 30 million store visits nationwide, Black Friday brings an estimated 45–50 million—still a sizable surge, but far less dramatic than the door-busting peaks of the late 2000s and early 2010s.
Digging deeper, the numbers reveal a story of stagnation. In 2017 and 2018, Black Friday foot traffic grew steadily year-over-year, with some malls and big-box stores reporting all-time highs. But after a post-pandemic rebound in 2021, in-person traffic essentially leveled off, with 2022–2024 showing little to no growth. In fact, several key retail analysts note that in 2024, Black Friday foot traffic was flat compared to 2023 and still 10–15% below pre-pandemic levels. Stores enjoy a notable spike: Black Friday foot traffic is about 53% above the daily average for the year, but that’s nearly identical to the prior two years, signaling that the event has topped out and is no longer the growing phenomenon it once was.
When you line up today’s numbers with those from Black Friday’s heyday, the decline is even clearer. At its peak in the mid-2010s, some years saw Black Friday traffic nearly double that of an average Friday. Now, while the surge remains, it’s less pronounced—and increasingly limited to a core group of loyal in-store shoppers. The days of every year bringing a new record crowd? Long gone. Instead, retailers have learned to expect steady, but plateaued, in-person attendance—proof that the cultural force of Black Friday has truly shifted.
So, how much more traffic do stores actually get on Black Friday? According to data from Placer.ai, which analyzes anonymous mobile device data, store visits on Black Friday have consistently been over 50% higher than the daily average for the rest of the year since 2021. That’s a substantial increase, proving that the day still holds sway. It remains a day when millions of Americans make a concerted effort to go out and shop.
But, the more important trend is that this number isn't really growing that much. After a spike in traffic as people returned to stores following the pandemic, the numbers have barely budged. This stagnation suggests that while there is a dedicated group of consumers who still love the in-store experience, retailers are no longer converting new waves of shoppers to the tradition.
Black Friday vs. Previous Years
When you compare current Black Friday foot traffic not just to an average day but to its own past, the decline becomes even more apparent. The days of setting new records for in-store crowds every year are long gone. The reality is that fewer people are making the trip than they used to.
Several factors contribute to this decline:
- The Never-Ending Sale: Retailers have diluted the importance of Black Friday by extending their promotional periods. When Black Friday deals start in October and run through December, the urgency to shop on that specific Friday disappears. Why wake up at 4 a.m. for a deal that was available last week and will likely be available next week?
- Generational Shifts: The appeal of the Black Friday rush seems to be waning, particularly among younger generations. Data from the Bank of America Institute shows that between 2023 and 2025, the number of millennials and Gen X consumers planning to do most of their shopping on Black Friday dropped. While the numbers are flat for Gen Z and baby boomers, there’s no significant growth. The traditional Black Friday experience doesn't hold the same weight as it once did.
- The Online Alternative: The ease of online shopping is the biggest competitor to in-store traffic. Consumers can check prices, read reviews, and make purchases from anywhere, at any time. The need to physically be in a store to secure a deal has been almost entirely eliminated.
Retailers have recognized this shift. Many now remain closed on Thanksgiving Day, a stark reversal from the trend a decade ago when "Gray Thursday" was becoming the new Black Friday. They still offer deals online during the holiday, but the message is clear: the focus has moved away from forcing an in-person rush.
A Decline in Holiday Spending
Perhaps the most concerning trend for retailers is not where people are shopping, but how much they are spending. Over the Thanksgiving weekend—what the industry often calls the “Turkey 5”—total spending has shown a sustained downward trend in recent years. According to National Retail Federation data, Americans spent about $361.9 billion during the Thanksgiving weekend in 2019. By 2020, spending dropped sharply to $311.8 billion (in large part due to pandemic uncertainty), and while there were some ups and downs in subsequent years, total spending never fully recovered to pre-pandemic highs.
Here’s a quick snapshot of total holiday purchases over Black Friday:
- 2019: $361.9 billion
- 2020: $311.8 billion
- 2021: $301.3 billion
- 2022: $325.4 billion
- 2023: $321.4 billion
- 2024: $315.6 billion
Between 2019 and 2024, total spending over the Thanksgiving weekend fell by nearly 13%, and that downward trend is expected to continue. Lingering economic uncertainty, inflation, and a general sense of "discount fatigue" all play a role. Consumers are being more deliberate with their purchases and are less likely to make impulse buys just because something is on sale.
The decline in spending over this key weekend puts immense pressure on retailers. The holiday season is a make-or-break period for many, and a weak Thanksgiving weekend can be a difficult hole to climb out of. It forces them to rely even more heavily on promotions throughout December, which can further erode profit margins and reinforce the consumer expectation that a better deal is always just around the corner. The days when Black Friday could single-handedly kick off a wildly profitable holiday season seem to be over.
The decline in spending over this key weekend puts immense pressure on retailers. The holiday season is a make-or-break period for many, and a weak Thanksgiving weekend can be a difficult hole to climb out of. It forces them to rely even more heavily on promotions throughout December, which can further erode profit margins and reinforce the consumer expectation that a better deal is always just around the corner. The days when Black Friday could single-handedly kick off a wildly profitable holiday season seem to be over.
But not just yet, as customers have spent $11.8 billion online during Black Friday 2025, which is up 9.26% from last year. However, Cyber Monday sales are projected to be around $14 billion, meaning more online revenue from Cyber Monday than Black Friday. That being said, the full data is not yet available at this time of writing, so we don’t yet have the full picture.
U.S. Online Black Friday Spending (2017–2024)
- 2017: $5.03 billion
- 2018: $6.20 billion
- 2019: $7.40 billion
- 2020: $9.00 billion
- 2021: $8.90 billion
- 2022: $9.12 billion
- 2023: $9.80 billion
- 2024: $10.80 billion
- 2025: $11.8 billion
It’s also important to note that even though Black Friday spending may appear to be up compared to previous years, this doesn’t account for inflation, tariffs, and price gouging—factors that have significantly impacted consumers. While spending might show an increase in 2025, a closer look at the change from 2017 to 2020 versus 2020 to now reveals stagnation when adjusted for these price-driving factors. Furthermore, the rise in shoppers from 197 million to 202.9 million highlights that, despite more people participating, total spending only increased by $1 billion compared to the previous year, suggesting that individuals are actually buying less.
The Great Deal Debate: Are the Discounts Even Real?
This brings us to the heart of the issue: the deals themselves. A growing sense of skepticism among shoppers is arguably the biggest contributor to Black Friday's decline. The core promise of Black Friday was always that you were getting an unbeatable, once-a-year price. But is that still true? Many consumers and experts would say no.
The problem lies in a lack of trust. Shoppers have become wary of promotions, and for good reason. The practice of regular discounting across the retail industry has conditioned us to expect sales constantly, because we expect items to be more reasonably priced.
Even more damaging is the widespread suspicion that some Black Friday deals are nothing more than retail smoke and mirrors. This is the practice where a retailer might raise the price of an item in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, only to "discount" it back down to its original price for the big day. The tag might suggest 50% off but the actual savings are minimal or non-existent.
On top of that, AI tools are now helping customers discover the best deals online and compare prices over the year. Time will tell just how negatively this will affect retailers as pricing becomes more transparent.
Numerous retailers like Amazon.com have been observed starting their Black Friday promotions on Thanksgiving with deals that were comparable to what they offered earlier in the year. When the supposedly "special" holiday price is the same as the regular sale price, the magic is gone. In the end, Black has been diluted to the point of irrelevance.
